Dynamic, affordable, liveable and attractive urban regions will never be free of congestion. Transport policies, however, should seek to manage congestion on a cost-effective basis with the aim of reducing the burden that excessive congestion imposes upon travellers and urban dwellers throughout the urban road network.
Without policy change, total transport activity is expected to continue growing in line with economic activity. Passenger traffic would grow slightly less than freight transport (34% by 2030 and 51% by 2050). The various modes would in general keep their relative share in the absence of significant policy changes. Road transport would maintain its dominant role in both passenger and freight transport within the EU, with passenger cars still contributing more than two thirds to total passenger transport in 2050.
The current situation regarding the EU accessibility in the EU suggests that there is a strong difference between central and peripheral areas in terms of connectivity and transport costs. Peripheral areas have higher average costs of transport, owing not only to the need for longer trips, but also to the more expensive or less efficient transport solutions that are available.
The likely increases in fuel costs and congestion levels noted above will lead to further divergences in accessibility. Many peripheral areas, particularly in the new Member States, will remain poorly connected to the European transport network. They will suffer disproportionately more from congestion and high fuel cost given their high dependence on few low-capacity road axes and regional air connections. Indeed, in the new Member States there are currently only around 4,500 km of motorways and no high speed rail lines and the conventional railway lines are often in poor condition. In metropolitan and adjacent
areas, the railway rings connected to the city and to regional networks have a decisive role in solving the challenges imposed by urban congestion.
The railway industry comes with an answer for improving the situation, in fact, even for improving inter-urban and inter-regional railway connections. European companies in the railway industry have developed more attractive products in conformity with the standards imposed for reducing urban pollution. Railway industry specialists believe that by 2015, the number of cities with a population exceeding 1 million citizens will increase from 300 to more than 550. Therefore, more than 350 million citizens will live in mega-cities with more than 10 million residents. Railway transport has been estimated at an annual growth of 3% during 2005-2015. To that end, the equipments necessary in railway transport will become a strategic factor as regards the transport of as much people as possible, but also freight and as fastest as possible, thus reducing road congestion and urban pollution.
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