The economic crisis has determined a dramatic decrease, emphasising and accelerating the shift of the economic situation from the advanced economies to the emerging ones which were developing before the crisis, recording faster increases than the other economies. In the long run, the governments will have to realise a balance between debt reduction and maintenance of the increase potential. Under the circumstances, the mobility estimates are based on the global economic growth, by 2050 the passenger transport being expected to record increases up to twice as much as those in 2010.
The most important factors which will determine the development of the passenger transport market and the increase of mobility volumes consist of the continuous increase of urbanisation, the increase of income per capita and the formation of greater populations. According to ITF (Seamless Transport for Greener Growth-2012) in the OECD region, the population growth will be 14% higher than in 2010, while in the non-OECD region, it will record a significant increase, reaching 39%, which will also mean the increase of mobility demands. By 2050, the global mobility systems will have to answer the needs of 9 billion people compared to 6.5 billion at the present moment, and about 8 billion will live in non-OECD states, the population density in these regions being estimated to increase 2.7 until 2050. This will put an enormous pressure on the development of infrastructure, of environmentally friendly means of transport that should face the challenges raised by the development of urban areas.
Therefore, by 2050, the mobility increase outside the OECD space will be 2.5-3.5 times higher and in OECD it will grow by 30%.
Under the circumstances, at global level, more and more policies and strategies are adopted, whose purpose is the promotion of using a transport that should answer all mobility and environmental demands. The states in the Wider Black Sea Area face a challenge that will determine the reshaping of the transport system: in the years to follow, the states will have to ensure that the public transport keep a stable market share in order not to let the cities surrender to congestion and pollution. Aware of the future needs in terms of mobility, the governments are trying to identify the most viable solutions for the traffic flow increase and to invest in projects whose purpose is the attainment of objectives.
At the level of the cities in this region, projects are being implemented for the support of the public transport.
For instance, Bulgaria is one of the active states from this point of view, intensely carrying out its projects by allocating important investments. Jaspers Action Plan was approved at the middle of the year by the government in order to finance transport-related and environmentally priority projects. Therefore, 35 projects are included for financing, out of which 10 projects on the national transport sector and 2 for the integration of urban transport. The projects aimined at optimising the urban mobility will focus on the projects for the completion of undergoing lines. By the integration strategy of the urban transport, a total of EUR 62 Million will be invested.
The underground transport has become an important objective for the Bulgarian authorities. Two lines were inaugurated this year and by 2014 Sofia will have another line which is going to link the centre of the capital to the international airport. Likewise, the company Metropoliten has launched the tender for the construction of a 2.7-km section of underground line, the works completion being expected in 24 months. The construction of the section will be co-funded with of EUR 55 Million economies from other contracts financed by the Sectoral Operational Programme Transport. According to the press, the project will totally cost EUR 80 Million. The need for projects and the motivation of authorities to implement these projects are reflected in the statistics executed after the commissioning of the new lines: the number of passengers which use Sofia Metro increased by 60% after the commissioning of the second underground line on August 31st this year and, according to estimates, about 100,000 persons gave up their personal car in favour of the underground.
As solution to help ease the traffic and increase the public transport market share, the development of the underground system is the alternative favoured by the authorities. For this purpose, the authorities in Moscow have adopted the “Transport Development Programme 2012+2016”, an ambitious business plan that allocates 20-25% of the entire annual budget of the city to the development of all means of public transport and city infrastructure. More specifically, in five years, 75 km underground lines with 35 stations will be built in the city, the entire bus fleet and half of the tram and underground train fleet will be renewed and 163 new public transport sections will be added.
In order to complete the projects, RZD and the Moscow Underground will set up a company that will build transfer links for the stations in the Moscow underground line that do not have access to the railway line. With the policies to be applied, Russia wants to ensure a fair development for an integrated transport infrastructure for the purpose of improving the mobility and among the most important priorities is the execution of an integrated transport system at the level of the environmental safety and standards by implementing investment projects. Likewise, in complex projects, the companies plan to attract foreign investors, which will determine the change of legislations in order to favour investors. “The participation of foreign contractors in underground development will require a qualitative change in the approach to design and approval”, the involvement of foreign organisations being vital for the attraction of financial resources, mentioned Tatiana Malashenkova, deputy head of the Moscow Transport and Road Infrastructure Department.
Romania is also one of the states which invest in the underground projects as a viable alternative to surface transport. Therefore, the authorities have decided to execute the underground Line 6 which will link Bucharest to Henri Coandă Airport. The new line will answer all transport demands since it will have an important role for the transport system, creating the link between two means of transport: the railway transport, which will be provided with a link at Gara de Nord and the air transport, intensely populated areas with an increased flow of passengers. The project will be executed in several phases and the costs will amount to approximately EUR 1 Billion. The line would be commissioned in 7 years as of the beginning of works. Besides this project, Bucharest initiates the most complex infrastructure project in the past decades: Line 5, for which the works will be carried out according to the established schedule. Due to the importance of the line in ensuring mobility, in the summer of 2012 the authorities established that this line should be extended.
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