Recent statistics show that a 50-80% drop in greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 2050 supposes the adoption of drastic measures at national and global level. To that end, many countries are already implementing strategies, especially in the transport sector, which is one of the main factors that can help reduce or increase CO2 emissions. The transport sector faces many challenges, such as economic growth, safety, competition and environmental issues. In this context, the transport activity is clearly a social and economic benefit: transport increase determines economic growth. However, the economic downturn caused a drop in global travel volumes, at the same time, contributing to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. According to the recent report elaborated by the International Transport Forum (ITF), the long-term trend shows an increase in CO2 emissions generated by the transport sector.
In recent years, the issue regarding climate change grew in importance especially at political level. Therefore, drastic decisions have to be made in all the sectors involved. Accepting the increase in CO2 emissions on a large scale and recognising the threat entailed for our ecosystem and way of living determined CO2 reduction to be one of the main issues debated and applied by most governments, international institutions and companies.
In order to develop a strategy on emission reduction it is necessary to analyse the main factors and identify the proper measures to reduce CO2 emissions.
Currently, CO2 emissions from transport represent 23% (at global level), and 30% come from fossil fuel, which determined an increase in CO2 emissions from 20.9 Gt (in 1990) to 28.8 Gt (in 2007), of which 4.58 Gt (1990) and 6.63 Gt (2007) come from transport. This represents a 45% increase, shows the International Energy Agency (IEA). The World Energy Outlook 2009 report shows that, at global level, CO2 emissions may increase by more than 40 Gt by 2030. Scenarios show that the transport sector may contribute to this increase by more than 9 Gt, despite the implementation of CO2 emission reduction policies.
Passenger and freight travel, especially in the road transport sector, has contributed to the increase in CO2 emissions. In order to eliminate this problem, measures have been elaborated, either by introducing certain standards on CO2 emissions or by transferring freight and passengers from road to rail.
Drop in global travel volume leads to cut in transport emissions, but drivers for increased greenhouse gas emissions from mobility remain.
A drop in travel volumes in the wake of the global economic crisis has decreased greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector in many countries. The long-term trend, however, continues to be towards an increase in CO2 emissions from travel activity, according to a new report released by the International Transport Forum at the OECD for its annual global mobility summit on “Transport and Innovation” held in Leipzig, Germany, during May 26-28, 2010.
The report says that global CO2 emissions from transport grew by 45% from 1990 to 2007. It concludes that from 2007 to 2030, transport emissions will continue to grow by approximately 40%. This is only slightly lower than pre-crisis estimates and already takes account of many planned efficiency improvements.
Road sector emissions dominate transport emissions, with light-duty vehicles accounting for the bulk of emissions globally. In some of the International Transport Forum’s 52 member countries, road freight accounts for up to 30% to 40% of road sector CO2 emissions. Emissions from global aviation and international shipping respectively accounted for 2.5% and 3% of total CO2 emissions in 2007 and are the fastest growing sources of transport CO2 emissions.
Across the economy, the crisis of 2008 has contributed to the sharpest drop in emissions in the past 40 years, with estimates ranging from 3% to 10%. This could translate into a 5% to 8% decrease in 2020 emissions from their pre-crisis projected levels, depending on the strength of the economic recovery.
Despite countries gaining some breathing room due to the post-crisis drop in GHG emissions, fundamental drivers for increased transport sector CO2 emissions remain and necessitate coordinated policies to limit future emissions. Some countries, notably France, Germany and Japan, have seen their road CO2 emissions stabilised or decrease even before the recession of 2008-2009, despite economic and road freight growth over the same period.
Major trends in the transport sector
The global economic crisis and the collapse of world trade in 2009 had a major impact on the transport sector, according to first-hand statistical figures for 2009 published by the International Transport Forum (ITF) at the OECD.
World container traffic (TEUs) fell by 26% in 2009, while air freight tonne-km dropped by 10%. Preliminary data for 2009 also indicate a 23% reduction in rail tonne-km and a reduction of just over 21% in road tonne-km in the European Union. Rail freight data for the United States and Russia show declines of nearly 14% and 12% respectively during the same period.
Passenger transport has not been affected as significantly as freight transport. Still, air passenger transport in IATA member countries dropped by 3.5% in 2009, about the size of the fall of rail passenger transport (-3.8%) in the 52 member countries of the International Transport Forum, according to the preliminary figures. Data on passenger transport by private car are less detailed but overall indicate a decline of more than 1% in the EU in 2008, where data is available.
Short-term data indicate that recovery in transport started towards the end of 2009. For example, the decline in rail freight came to an end in Q3 of 2009 in a number of countries. However, overall rail freight figures remain at depressed levels compared to their pre-crisis levels. The economic crisis resulted in many households postponing purchases of durables like cars, creating serious difficulties for manufacturers. New registrations of private cars in the ITF member countries dropped by 3.5% in 2009 versus 2008, according to preliminary data.
Several governments included support for car purchase in their economic stimulus packages. While the scope and terms of stimulus package schemes varied significantly, a number of countries did see a rise in the number of new registrations.
In the more mature economies of Western Europe, the US and Japan, the share of transport infrastructure investment as a share of GDP continued to decline to below 0.8% in 2008 (1995: 1%). In Eastern and Central Europe, the strong recent acceleration in the volume of infrastructure investment has shown no signs of slowdown: investment in inland transport infrastructure increased over 17% in real terms from 2007 to 2008, with only 2.5% growth in Western European countries.
A convergence back to previous growth paths and a continuation of past economic patterns will quickly lead back to steeply rising GHG emissions in the absence of robust GHG mitigation policies. A convergence back to previous growth paths on the basis of changed and lower-carbon economic activity will see lower rates of GHG emissions than before. Changes in trading patterns and production and consumption patterns that seek to alleviate energy shock risks might also see reduced GHG emissions from past business-as-usual trends.
Already, many countries have noticed a drop in GHG emissions – for instance, the US Environmental Protection Agency has announced a 3.2% drop in CO2 emissions from 2007 to 2008 and the US Energy Information Agency expected a 5.9% drop in emissions from 2008 to 2009, which turned out to be less than the final 6.6% drop recorded in April 2010.
CO2 emissions from transport plummeted in 2008 (-5.7% compared to 2007), as opposed to the last seven years, when the level of emissions increased. While oil prices in 2008 contributed to this drop in transport emissions, the US Energy Information Administration reported that the drop in energy consumption was also due to the industrial sector, which was severely affected by the economic crisis.
The increase in CO2 emissions varied from one region to another. The regions which recorded the highest growth are: the EU (7%), North America (21%), ITF member states from the Asia-Pacific region (39%). During 1990 – 2007, a rapid growth (142%) was recorded in non-ITF countries. China recorded a 172% increase in CO2 emissions from fuel combustion. The growth rate in CO2 emissions from the main sectors varies, however the regions which recorded a significant growth rate are the ones which also recorded a significant increase in transport.
Therefore, CO2 emissions from transport in the new EU member states are rapidly increasing compared to EU-15. However, the latter recorded a higher increase in CO2 emissions from air transport. The Asia-Pacific region recorded growth in every sector, but CO2 emissions from transport were lower than air and maritime transport (65% and +104%, respectively). Hence, EU-15 emissions represent a dominating part of EU-27 and, at global level, the US, Japan and Russia largely dominate in terms of CO2 emissions from transport.
As opposed to other ITF member states, Russia holds a dominant position in terms of CO2 emissions. However, due to the structural changes made in the ’90s, CO2 emissions from all sectors dropped during 1990 – 2007. In the ’90s, the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe went through major structural changes and the overall trend led to an increase in CO2 emissions from transport in most countries. In return, Western European countries recorded a stable level or even a drop in CO2 emission from transport, especially road transport, even during the post-crisis period (2008 – 2009), despite the fact that road freight transport increased compared to other modes of transport. This trend was mainly due to the proper implementation of anti-pollution measures. To that end, there were many factors that contributed to CO2 emission stability or decrease: changes concerning the fuel tax in Germany, a drop in the average commercial speed for freight and passenger transport in France. The impact brought by the implementation of light fuel policies also played a major role in the reduction of CO2 emissions.
While road transport poses a threat to the environment, rail transport has a high potential in reducing CO2 emissions
The GHG emission rate varies based on the mode of transport. The largest quantities come from air, road and maritime transport, which represent the main factors for environmental degradation. Out of all the modes of transport, road transport generates the highest quantities of CO2, because its usage rate is higher compared to other modes of transport. “If the transport sector, and especially road transport, had followed the trends of other economic sectors, we would have been able to act as an example for all countries worldwide: we would have been able to reach our GHG targets years ago”, said Jacqueline McGlade, Executive Director for the European Environment Agency (EEA), at the presentation of the report called “Climate for a transport change”.
Energy and environmental policies outline the negative impact of road transport. To that end, international institutions have set standards for the reduction of polluting emissions and also applied rigorous measures in order to reach GHG reduction targets by 2020.
The transport sector, and especially road transport, is responsible for 28% of the total CO2 emissions in the EU. The European Union has introduced several measures to reduce CO2 emissions, including: efficient fuel consumption, alternative fuels, reduced targets for CO2 emissions from cars and, last but not least, promoting rail transport on a large scale.
However, unlike other sectors, the impact of the transport sector is strongly connected to economic growth. “In the last ten years, we have focused all our efforts on elaborating measures for improving mobility, separating transport emissions from economic growth. Now, however, we’ve noticed that massive investments made in the transport infrastructure allowed us to better satisfy daily needs, but they haven’t led to a reduction in noise, congestion and air pollution exposure”, said Jacqueline McGlade, Executive Director for the European Environment Agency (EEA).
The transport sector is the only sector which hasn’t been successful in reducing polluting emissions, being responsible for one third of the total and is now diminishing the progress recorded in other sectors. “Eliminating carbon is not up for debate. We have set mandatory targets for emission reduction by 2020 and we will take all the necessary legislative measures. As for internalising the external costs on pollution from the transport sector, we will have to make progress in applying proper mechanisms for all transport modes”, said Siim Kallas, European Commissioner for transport, in front of the European Parliament.
In order to reduce emissions from road freight transport, the European Commission proposed in a Communication the introduction of CO2 reduction standards. The Communication is meant to help the industry play a major role in promoting and developing greener transport technologies in the following decades and boost economic growth. The Communication includes an action plan which mentions for the first time the need to limit CO2 emissions from heavy trucks. “These objectives should be welcomed. In the past, the Commission has shown a much reduced self-restraint capacity when it comes to the elaboration of legislative proposals. This happened when they announced the reduced CO2 targets for heavy trucks”, said Jos Dings, Director of Transport & Environment (T&E).
Road and air transport is responsible for 90% of the CO2 emissions level. In this context, rail transport is very important. International institutions are becoming more and more aware of the fact that rail transport should be promoted and supported, seeing as it is the most eco-friendly and energy efficient mode of transport.
Rail transport development is one of the most efficient measures for pollution reduction, which can bring positive results both on short and medium-term. In more developed countries where rail transport proves its efficiency, pollution is reduced in real terms. In this context, the authorities should implement proper projects in order to reach CO2 targets. “In order to reach the 20% emission reduction target by 2020, the most obvious solution is rail transport, the least polluting mode of transport. Rail transport should be promoted in a way in which passengers will be more attracted to it and not road or air transport. Rail transport is also important for freight, not only for passengers”, said Michael Clausecker, Director General UNIFE, during a meeting with European Commissioner Siim Kallas.
In order to reach these objectives, rail transport policies should be implemented both at national and international level.
The competent authorities should adopt new regulations in the field and also identify the decision factors in order to establish a proper platform for rail transport development. Emerging economies should be supported in order to reach these targets, because they generate a sustainable economic growth. The quality of living implies much more than climate change. To that end, rail transport provides sustainable mobility through the development of an efficient, green mode of transport, which has a reduced environmental impact.
COP15 Summit didn’t approach the issue on transport emissions
The COP15 Summit held in Copenhagen in December 2009 was not successful in determining the participating countries to establish and sign a treaty on environmental protection to replace the Kyoto Protocol before it expires in 2012. The Kyoto Protocol establishes mandatory limitations on GHG emissions for industrialized countries and stipulates a 5% reduction in GHG emissions by 2012. The so-called “Copenhagen Agreement” (CA), which wasn’t signed by the end of the plenary session, is uncertain. The key elements of this agreement reside in the implementation of proper measures to limit global warming by only 2 degrees Celsius and the elaboration of objectives (by developed countries) for the reduction of GHG emissions. The Copenhagen Agreement also stipulates financing in the amount of USD 30 Billion for the less developed countries (for the period 2010 – 2012) and a target of USD 100 Billion per year by 2020.
“This financing will come from a wide variety of sources, public and private, bilateral and multilateral, including alternative financing sources”, stipulates the Frame-Agreement.
However, the Copenhagen Agreement makes no reference to the reduction of transport emissions. COP15 adopted the extension of negotiations concerning the elaboration of a mandatory treaty at COP16, which will be held in Mexico in December 2010. This will have repercussions on the transport sector, not only because of the ambitious regulations, but also because of the way of defining post-Kyoto mechanisms, which will determine the intervention of the transport sector in reducing polluting emissions in emerging countries.
The only issue related to transport that was analysed during the Summit and also included in the Copenhagen Agreement was the inclusion of international air and maritime transport sectors in an agreement that complies with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
by Pamela Luică
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