The demand on electric locomotive in EU Member States in Eastern Europe is expected to significantly increase, while the demand in Western Europe will even decline slightly after peaking in 2018, according to a new study by SCI Verkehr.
The transport demand in Eastern Europe is growing and there is still a pent-up demand for modern, more powerful and cross-border electric locomotives, equipped with ETCS, as current fleet in this region
is comparatively old with more than 35 years, whereas the share of national locomotives is very high at around 90%.
The average age in Western Europe is about 23 years and the share of national locomotives is less than 70%. Meanwhile the growth of open-access passenger transport is also increasing the demand for new locomotives in Eastern Europe.
The study, which analyses the worldwide market for electric locomotives says that in long term, also beyond the considered 5-year period, Europe will be characterized by a steady growth in demand for electric locomotives. At present, the high point in Western Europe is exceeded.
Worldwide, the new business for electric locomotives will decline slightly over the next five years. In the three most important regions Asia, Europe and the CIS, SCI Verkehr expects new business to remain stable at a high level. The slight decline in global market volume can be traced back to the smaller market regions Africa and North America. Due to the significant procurements in recent years, the market for maintenance and after-sales services is growing worldwide.